A Mystery Called Syria
معمایی بنام سوریه
In recent days, with the renewed attack by the terrorists of Jabhat al-Nusra and Ahrar al-Sham on the city of Aleppo and the re-occupation of parts of this city by these groups, Syria has once again become a topic of discussion. Why do global and mainly regional policies tend to lead to a constant state of insecurity in Syria? Which countries benefit the most from the insecurity in Syria?
1. The Tourism Issue
This aspect might seem insignificant at first glance, but it should be noted that before 2012, Syria was a tourist country. Besides religious tourism, which attracted Shia Muslims from around the world, its coastal tourism due to its pleasant Mediterranean climate annually welcomed thousands of people from around the globe. It should also be mentioned that before 2012, Syria’s GDP, which was partially supported by tourism, exceeded 50 billion dollars annually. However, after the emergence of insecurity, Syria’s GDP fell to less than 8 billion dollars in 2021. Now, the question arises, which areas surrounding Syria have replaced its Mediterranean climate tourism industry? The answer is quite simple: part of these tourists will head towards the occupied territories, and another part will go to Turkey.
2. Energy Corridors
A significant number of analysts who examine Syrian issues from the perspective of international political economy propose that energy corridors are one of the main issues that lead countries to try to influence Syria’s security developments. They attempt to dominate Syria or at least maintain a degree of insecurity there by using their proxy groups.
It should be noted that Syria is one of the best routes for transferring energy resources towards the Mediterranean Sea and from there to other parts of the world. It is obvious that security in Syria might not necessarily be beneficial for the national interests of other countries and regions in the Middle East that seek to become the Middle East’s energy hub, including Turkey.
Additionally, some regions looking to export their energy resources, and the export of Iranian energy resources through Syria could serve as a competitor for them in energy markets, including the occupied territories which have recently started extracting energy resources from the Karish field.
Moreover, Qatar will benefit from insecurity in Syria because, in the presence of insecurity, countries are forced to accept Turkey as an energy hub. On the other hand, the export of Iranian energy resources, especially gas, through Syrian territory will be limited, and Iran will be compelled to export its energy resources through Turkey, a NATO member. As a result, from this perspective, Turkey, some Arab countries, and the occupied territories benefit from the continuation of insecurity in Syria, which will lead to the limitation of Iran’s energy lines or their passage through Turkish territory.
3. Goods Transportation Corridors
Although Syria is currently not present in any of the mapped-out routes for goods transportation in China’s New Silk Road corridors and possibly in the future in India’s Cotton Road corridor, it should be considered that just like Syria’s energy resources, due to its long coastlines with the Mediterranean Sea, if it becomes a secure country, it could claim a part of future goods transportation corridors.
This issue could reduce Turkey’s dominance over potential Chinese New Silk Road corridors and Israel’s dominance over the IMEC corridor.
This means that it could relatively allocate part of the transit, which can reduce traffic in other corridors. In this issue, the United States will also benefit because practically China’s New Silk Road will pass through a NATO member country, Turkey, instead of Syria.
4. The Importance of Syria as a Gateway for Goods to the Middle East
It should be noted that just as Syria, if it becomes secure, can act as a port for exporting Middle Eastern and even East Asian goods and energy to the European Union and other parts of the world, if it is secure and has the infrastructure, it can also act as a port for importing goods from Europe, parts of Africa, and South America to the Middle East. From this perspective, it can put Turkey and Israel at a disadvantage and divert part of Turkey and Israel’s future tariff revenues towards Syria.
As a result, if insecurity in Syria continues, other countries will try to export their desired goods to the Middle East and Asia through Turkey or the occupied territories.
5. Syria’s Water Issues with Turkey and the Kurdish Issue
During Hafez al-Assad’s era, Syria had problems with Turkey over the Euphrates water. However, at that time, Syria could use the leverage of supporting the Kurds to obtain its water rights from Turkey. Currently, with insecurity in Syria, reduced income and foreign reserves, and the lack of government control over Kurdish regions, this issue has practically created an advantage for Turkey from a security perspective and strengthened Turkey’s position on the Euphrates water issue to some extent. Turkey can negotiate with regional countries, including Syria, regarding the Euphrates water in exchange for exporting goods and services to this country. However, it should be accepted that for the first time in the history of relations between Turkey and Syria, Syria has used terrorist groups as a tool to exert pressure against Turkey.
6. Syria’s Energy Resources
Although Syria’s oil and gas resources are much less compared to other Middle Eastern countries, this country, albeit minimally, has oil and gas resources mainly located in the northern and Kurdish regions where American bases are currently stationed around these resources. It is obvious that if national sovereignty is strengthened in this country, ultimately Syria will seek to reclaim its energy resources either through legal means and international courts or through the use of force, which also leads to a kind of green light from the Americans regarding the continuation of Syria’s security developments to other regional actors.
7. Ensuring Israel’s Security
Syria has long been considered an enemy of Israel since the establishment of Israel. The existence of a unified and powerful Syria, which is also considered an ally of Iran, can impact the security issues of the occupied territories. As a result, the continuation of insecurity in Syria is somehow in Israel’s favor because it drains the focus and energy of the Syrian army.
8. The Golan Heights Issue
The Golan Heights, which were separated from this land during the Arab-Israeli war, are of great security importance to Israel because they overlook Israel. It is not far-fetched that if the day comes when the security puzzle in Syria is solved and the army of this country can regain its power, this country will seek to reclaim the Golan Heights either legally and through international means or by force. Therefore, the existence of scattered insecurities in Syria to divert the focus and energy of its army is considered an advantage for Israel and somehow brings the security commodity to Israel.
9. Capital Flight from Syria
It should be noted that during the Syrian civil war, a large part of this country’s economic capital and human resources exited the country. Until now, Syria has become a consumer country that imports its simplest consumer goods from other countries. However, the question arises, which country was the closest destination for Syria’s human resources and economic capital during the civil war? The answer is very simple: the closest country that Syrian investors, workers, and traders chose to be closer to their homeland was Turkey. Although Turkey hosted five million Syrian refugees during the Syrian crisis, it also managed to attract part of Syria’s cheap labor force and capital towards itself.
10. Using Armed Groups as a Political Pressure Tool
Even if these armed groups cannot fully control all of Syria, their supporters can use them as a political pressure tool to gain geopolitical, economic, and security concessions in exchange for withdrawing support from these groups or even using them as a bargaining chip. This is a scenario that has occurred many times throughout the history of the Middle East region, exactly similar to what Hafez al-Assad did in relation to the Kurds against Turkey.
Conclusion
It should be noted that the two main players in Syria’s security developments, namely Turkey and Israel, have tried to turn Syria’s environment into a geopolitical environment to secure their economic, national, and security interests. It should be acknowledged that these two players have been successful in this regard and have been able to advance their economic and security objectives concerning Syria. Although they have not been able to dominate Syrian territory, and Iran, Russia, and Syria have played a more powerful role on the battlefield, even this small amount of insecurity in Syria has brought them closer to some of their geopolitical goals. For example, it can be mentioned that currently, no tourists are heading to Syria, no energy pipeline passes through Syrian territory, and no investment prefers Syria over Turkey.
Currently, the Syrian army does not have the power to play a role in security developments related to the occupied territories. Syria, as in the past, cannot support Kurdish groups. Regarding Turkey, which could also have a win-win game by turning Syria and the region into a geoeconomic environment, it seems to be seeking to turn the region into a geopolitical area to achieve a win solely for itself and direct the region towards a situation where there is only one winner. Regarding the issue of strengthening armed groups in the region and its potential effects on Turkey’s future security, this is a topic that futurists should pay attention to because, according to the Copenhagen School’s regional security theory, insecurity from one area can spread to neighboring areas. It can also be mentioned that perhaps Turkey’s action is based on the idea that these groups should grow to such an extent that there is always a state of neither peace nor war in a geopolitical environment in Syria so that Turkey can achieve its national interests.
